A growing confrontation between the U.S. and Iran that began with the American withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the reimposition of sanctions has recently turned into a conflict over tankers between Iran and the UK. The impounding of an Iranian tanker by the British Royal Marines off the coast of Gibraltar on July 4 was followed by the boarding and seizure of a selectively chosen UK-flagged tanker by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz on July 19. Though no one is hearing the drums of war and a military confrontation seems not to be in the cards for now, the tit for tat could nevertheless escalate into a costly standoff in the most vital waterways for global oil trade. From high and rising shipping insurance costs to warship escorts for tankers, the confrontation could become costly for all involved. De-escalation, however, seems complicated precisely because Britain was drawn into a confrontation that is not its own at a crucial moment in its domestic politics.
It’s not clear why Britain decided to enter into this confrontation with Iran over one tanker it said was violating EU sanctions on Syria when oil and armaments have been flowing freely to the country for many years. It’s even less understandable why Theresa May would chose to do so now, while on her way out of 10 Downing Street. The move is also loaded with irony: The Grace 1 was detained at Gibraltar at the request of the U.S., at a time when Britain, unlike the U.S., is still party to the Iran nuclear deal.
The question now is how to avoid reaching a point of no return in the escalation cycle and prevent a war in the Strait of Hormuz that nobody wants, including Iran, which is still shipping some of its crude via the Gulf waterway, albeit secretly, to customers in Asia. That challenge is laid at the feet of Boris Johnson, the likely successor to May, who is widely expected to take over the premiership on Tuesday. If he chooses to extend the standoff with Iran and uphold the UK government’s advice to British-flagged tankers to avoid the Strait, akin to almost halting trade, the rest of the world will have to bear the consequences for oil prices and shipping costs. Finding a way to climb down from the position May has landed him in would require distancing himself from the Trump-Bolton orbit he’s known to favor. At stake is the very definition of British interest and the risk of a long-term war of attrition.