A capacity of 6 million b/d though achievable but is not the answer to the state requirements of revenue, while 12 million b/d can’t be maintained for a long time and requires higher investment within a short number of years and involves a high risk if the markets cannot absorb it. Committing huge investments to end up with an idle capacity is not an ideal scenario for Iraq. In my view it’s more prudent to adopt a phased approach targeting 9 million b/d of production capacity by the end of this decade, taking into consideration that domestic demand for refined products and power generation would need at least 1.5 million b/d within the same timeframe. This leaves us with about 7.5 million b/d of exports to market.
From a keynote address to the IEA workshop on Iraq Energy Outlook, Istanbul – May 4, 2012